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Solar module prices in India ‘likely to live subdued within the near length of time’

Vikram V, vp and co-neighborhood head of corporate rankings at Indian funding files and credit score score agency ICRA Ltd, speaks to pv magazine about falling describe voltaic cell and module prices, the affect on Indian pv manufacturers, and the formula forward.

From pv magazine India

For PV developers in India, what’s the landed price of modules imported from China, Vietnam and Hong Kong after accounting for all responsibilities, logistics prices, and descend in prices? Are these soundless more affordable than modules assembled in India? How has the power descend in module prices globally affected the pricing by Indian manufacturers?

The prices of the imported mono PERC modules (sooner than responsibility and logistics) witnessed a serious decline over the previous 15 months, declining to an all-time low of 12-13 cents/watt in December 2023 from the high of 27-28 cents/watt seen in Q4 FY2022 and lower than the 23-24 cents/watt seen in December 2022. Also, cell prices enjoy declined to 5-6 cents/watt in December 2023 from the quit of 16-17 cents/watt in December 2022.

Per the unique cell and module prices, the landed price of imported modules is predicted to be about 19-20 cents/watt, while the cost of modules sourced from domestic OEMs the use of imported cells is predicted to be better at 22-23 cents/watt.

With ALMM leisure till March 31, 2024 and a descend in module prices, module imports are rising. How can Indian manufacturers defend aggressive?

The imports of describe voltaic cells and modules elevated by 155% to INR 22,992 crore ($2.8 million) in 7M FY2024 from INR 9,020 crore in 7M FY2023, in note of the abeyance of the ALMM stammer and a engaging decline in describe voltaic PV cell and module prices. While the domestic OEMs are anticipated to be valid in opposition to imports throughout the ALMM submit March 31, 2024 (assuming that the abeyance is now not extended), the pricing would remain uncovered to world wafer and cell prices given the dependence on imports for key inputs. The Indian describe voltaic OEMs can enhance their competitiveness through backward integration and rising the scale of operations.

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Secure you seek files from the autumn in module prices to persist in 2024?

Given the dominance of Chinese language OEMs across the describe voltaic PV manufacturing price chain, the pricing would remain sensitive to the current coming from China along with their potential expansion plans. Within the near length of time, the costs are inclined to live subdued.

Secure you mediate the module oversupply within the arena market would possibly well furthermore hit the expansion plans of Indian manufacturers?

The plans by the Indian manufacturers would remain linked with the protection available in opposition to the more affordable imports, i.e., ALMM and BCD regime. If the ALMM stammer had been to be restored submit March 2024, the domestic manufacturers are inclined to continue with their expansion plans. On the opposite hand, the manufacturers have to point of curiosity on backward integration, know-how adoption and scaling up their capacities to compete with the arena manufacturers.

Offered that the manufacturing potential in India is probably going to exceed the domestic ask if all of the potential expansion plans, collectively with under the PLI plan, had been to fructify, the skill of the Indian describe voltaic OEMs to live aggressive with the arena peers would possibly well be crucial to design a respective half within the export markets.

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