US inventory market crash: December cycle prediction performs out as Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones bleed

Nasdaq plunges 20%, S&P 500 and Dow Jones tumble as Trump’s tariffs spark elephantine-scale correction—historical patterns tag deeper losses ahead

The writing became on the wall, as clearly outlined in our December 2024 prognosis titled “Is the US inventory market bull flee working out of steam? Ancient patterns tag that it’s most likely you’ll imagine endgame.” At that point, our prognosis warned merchants that vital US indices—the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones—were nearing severe inflection parts after a relentless bull market flee. The Nasdaq 100 peaked spherical 22010, the S&P 500 at 6020, and the Dow Jones at roughly 45050.

Swiftly-ahead to April 2025, and the predictions are manifesting earlier than our eyes. Structural weaknesses first noticed in February 2025 devour now deepened into a serious market downturn, exacerbated by geopolitical turmoil from the “Trump Liberation Day” tariffs. These tariffs devour now now not perfect unsettled world alternate but additionally acted as the closing catalyst triggering apprehension-promoting across equity markets.

Nasdaq 100 enters undergo market territory

The Nasdaq 100, in total soft to shifts in likelihood sentiment, has now fallen dramatically into a textbook undergo market, declining 20% from its all-time excessive. At the time of writing, the index trades near the severe improve at 17285, marking the second stage of the anticipated vital pullback. The promoting intensified sharply previously two purchasing and selling periods, shedding more than 5% amid intensifying fears of prolonged alternate tensions.

Technical prognosis indicates that if Nasdaq loses the rapid improve level at 17444, it opens the door for extra declines against 16836. Any transient recovery makes an attempt face vital resistance spherical 18205 and on the change hand at the severe pivot near 18440.

Nasdaq 100 December 2024 prognosis

Nasdaq 100 April 4th 2025 prognosis

S&P 500 deepens correction, severe levels drawing near

The S&P 500 (SPX) has mirrored the Nasdaq’s weakness, suffering severe losses and declining over 16% from its sage highs. In the final two days by myself, SPX dropped 6%, underscoring market apprehension. At demonstrate, the index is testing a vital technical zone at 5151—the second stage of its corrective cycle identified in December’s prognosis.

If promoting strain persists below 5151, merchants could see accelerated declines against subsequent improve levels at 5030 and 4955. A most likely third stage of this vital market correction would seemingly pressure prices even decrease, focusing on the wanted improve level at 4834. Any upside recovery would bump into vital resistance at 5225 and 5300, limiting the possibilities of a sustained rebound in the near interval of time.

US 500 December 2024 prognosis

US 500 April 4th 2025 prognosis

Dow Jones faces China’s retaliation

The Dow Jones Industrial Common (DJIA), beforehand regarded as a haven for balance, is additionally bleeding heavily. The DJIA has dropped by roughly 1450 parts over two periods, marking a decline of over 14% from its historical highs. China’s swift retaliatory tariffs in opposition to Trump’s policies extra intensified promoting strain, using the Dow Jones sharply decrease.

At demonstrate purchasing and selling at the severe second-stage improve of 38982, extra downside feels like increasingly more seemingly. Must the index fail to tackle this level, subsequent improve levels are discovered at 38508 and, particularly, 37743. A deeper third-stage correction exertion outlined in our December prognosis targets the severe psychological and technical improve at 36504. Any bullish reversal attempt faces tall resistance at 39747 and, more a good deal, at 40230.

Dow Jones December 2024 prognosis

Dow Jones April 4th 2025 prognosis

Basic catalysts fueling the sell-off

The fresh sell-off has now now not perfect been a technical phenomenon but additionally displays vital elementary shifts:

• Trump Liberation Day tariffs: These protectionist policies, at the start focusing on Canada and Mexico, devour expanded into a broader alternate war with China, severely disrupting world alternate dynamics and investor self belief.
• Deteriorating economic outlook: Rising geopolitical tensions mixed with greater inflation and ardour rate pressures from the Federal Reserve devour extra deteriorated sentiment.
• Company earnings considerations: With tariffs affecting provide chains and profitability, merchants now wait for weaker company earnings steering, adding gasoline to market declines.

Ancient patterns supply clues for what’s subsequent

Ancient patterns, as broadly detailed in our December 2024 prognosis, counsel that the selling in total hastens as soon as markets enter this correction section earlier than reaching a sustainable bottom. Traders must peaceable brace for heightened volatility and more downside dangers till clearer indicators of stabilization emerge, doubtlessly over the upcoming months and even a twelve months.

Conclusion and investor takeaways

The continuing market turmoil is a smartly timed reminder of the predictive vitality of historical cycles and entire technical prognosis. Traders must peaceable exercise warning and remain vigilant of severe levels highlighted on this prognosis. While transient rebounds could occur, the broader pattern clearly parts against sustained bearish strain.

As markets navigate these turbulent waters, prudently managed portfolios, cautious likelihood administration, and shut monitoring of technical and elementary indicators will seemingly be wanted. I may proceed to invent smartly timed updates to files merchants through these unprecedented market traits.