Stock Market Hits File High in April 2026 — Tom Lee Says the Ultimate Is Unexcited to Come

TLDR

• The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 on April 15, surpassing its January 28 document, while the Nasdaq hit a brand fresh all-time excessive at 24,016
• Tom Lee argues the market is coping with rising oil prices greater than varied worldwide locations, with oil above $100/barrel after the Hormuz Strait closure
• Defense spending of ~$30 billion/month is boosting corporate earnings and supporting the economic system despite the US-Iran battle
• Lee says the inflation affect from oil prices would be much less severe than feared, per historical files
• Institutional patrons sitting on cash are now being compelled into the market, creating attempting to search out stress — Lee maintains his S&P 500 target of 7,300

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq each reached fresh all-time highs this week, erasing losses tied to the US-Iran battle that had rattled markets since January. The S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95 on April 15, topping its old document dwelling on January 28. The Nasdaq closed at 24,016, also a brand fresh document.

🚨 Excellent in as we train time.

Tom Lee who accurately known as for ATH’s this month, reiterates we can inquire 7,300 on the $SPX in the attain term then we would inquire a 15-20% drawdown after, before a Q4 rally relief to ATH’s at 7,700 to shut the 365 days.

So timeline looks to be something love this:

7,300…

— Heisenberg (@Mr_Derivatives) April 16, 2026

Tom Lee, founding father of Fundstrat, looked on CNBC’s Closing Bell to demonstrate why he believes the market is now in greater shape than it was as soon as at those earlier peaks. He laid out three particular causes.

His first point was as soon as about oil prices. Oil surged above $100 per barrel following the closure of the Hormuz Strait. Lee acknowledged this was as soon as a headwind but argued the US economic system was as soon as coping with it greater than most.

“I judge the inventory market as we train time is in a greater converse than it was as soon as at the foundation of final 365 days,” Lee talked about. He identified that while excessive oil prices are dragging on varied worldwide locations, the US market has largely absorbed the stress.

Oil prices did pull relief a microscopic bit after initial features, as markets factored in hopes of a de-escalation between the US and Iran.

Corporate Profits Holding Up

Lee’s 2nd reason taking into consideration about earnings. He talked about corporate earnings have remained sturdy for the rationale that battle began, which he sees as evidence the war has thus some distance stimulated as a change of damaged the US economic system.

Defense spending is a key half of that equation. Lee eminent the US is spending roughly $30 billion per month on protection, with ability to double to $60 billion. That spending is flowing at as soon as into the economic system.

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He in comparison that to the oil tag burden, which he estimated charges US households about $12 billion per month collectively — a gain certain for the economic system total, in his see.

Tech companies have posted sturdy ends in the most vital quarter of 2026, beating analyst expectations in several cases. That has helped justify fresh valuations on the Nasdaq.

Inflation Also can neutral Be Much less of a Teach

Lee’s third argument addressed inflation fears. Many analysts have warned that $100+ oil will feed into broader tag increases. Lee pushed relief on that see.

“Attempting relief at the history of oil tag volatility, the affect on core inflation numbers is decrease than we anticipated,” he talked about. He believes the inflation shock would be smaller than markets are pricing in.

Institutional Money Shifting In

In the course of the weeks of market decline, many institutional patrons stayed on the sidelines and built up cash. With indices now at fresh highs, those patrons face stress to deploy that capital or menace falling in the help of their benchmarks.

Lee maintained his S&P 500 365 days-stop target of 7,300, which might perchance most seemingly well picture roughly 4% upside from fresh stages.

Bitcoin and varied crypto resources have traditionally moved per tech shares for the length of periods of immense menace appetite, and onchain files has shown renewed inflows into institutional Bitcoin products in fresh weeks.