US President Donald Trump looks to be on, on the day he signs an government expose in the Oval Agonize of job at the White Dwelling in Washington, US, January 31, 2025. (Reuters characterize)
Inventory market analysts and asset management executives now rely on that the Thai index could maybe maybe most definitely also fall to 1,250 aspects or lower in the quick duration of time after US President Donald Trump’s determination to hike tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China raised fears over a widening trade battle and rising inflation.
The Inventory Alternate of Thailand (SET) index plunged 40 aspects to as low as 1,275.37 when it started trading early Monday, down from Friday’s shut of 1,314.50. The bourse then a tiny rebounded to shut at 1,290.88 aspects by midday, down 1.8%.
Supongvorn Mianpoka, assistant managing director and chief funding officer at Tisco Asset Manaemnt, described Feb 3 as “one other Gloomy Monday” after a heavy promote-off in the US tech and AI explain brought about stock markets globally to dip per week earlier.
“The White Dwelling confirmed a 25% import tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, plus a further 10% tariff on Chinese language goods effective as of Feb 4. It scheme the trade battle has been precipitated earlier than the market had forecast,” talked about Mr Supongvorn.
The disagreeable assertion from President Trump clearly indicated that he no longer easiest targets China however also the the relaxation of Asia, the Americas and also Europe as he desires the US to be a frontrunner in these markets, he added.
In accordance to Krungsri Securities (KSS), China already equipped a retaliatory tariff of 10% on US imports and plans to file a complaint with the World Alternate Organization (WTO). Canada also equipped instant counter measures with identical tariffs on US goods.
“The resurgence of trade battle concerns is liable to negatively impact market sentiment, as it raises inflation dangers attributable to higher product prices and financial repercussions,” KSS talked about in a be taught expose.
Mr Supongvorn talked about Tisco now foresees the SET index most definitely plunging to a vary of 1,200-1,250 aspects all the scheme through the first quarter of 2025 even though the asset management agency sees the likelihood of the US and China reaching a conclusion to their trade dispute.
“Trump appears to exercise tariff hikes as a approach for US trade negotiations and the market is now in a wait and gape mode for reactions from China. He also realises that ice climbing import tariffs causes inflationary dangers to the US economy,” he worthy.
Better dangers of rising US inflation brought on Tisco to have faith the Federal Reserve (Fed) would natty the federal fund payment easiest a few times this One year, as a replace of 4 cuts in its usual forecast, ranging from the center of this One year, Mr Supongvorn worthy.
Tisco has to this level projected that the SET index could maybe maybe most definitely also hit the 1,500-1,530-level vary by the cease of this One year, up spherical 10% from that of 2024, given the ongoing vogue of hobby payment cuts globally.
Kongkiat Opaswongkarn, founder and chief government of Asia Plus Neighborhood Holdings, talked about the Thai stock market is fragile thanks to the domestic self perception disaster whereas external components deteriorate.
The decline used to be also attributable to heavy selling of long-duration of time fairness funds and some realistic Thai stocks. Shares of big retailer CP All (CPALL) declined from 52 baht apiece to 49.5 baht in early trading hours attributable to knowledge that the founding family of Seven & i Holdings, the proprietor of seven-Eleven globally, is asking Thailand’s Charoen Pokphand neighborhood to speculate in a management buyout of the Japanese retailing broad.
“High tariff boundaries could maybe maybe private an impact on exports. China has excess capability and a trade battle with the US could maybe maybe most definitely also position off Chinese language goods to divert from the US to Asian markets. It can maybe maybe most definitely also private an impact on exports, which we gathered depend on for 60-70% of GDP,” talked about Mr Kongkiat.
Asia Plus now anticipates the SET index to transfer in a vary of 1,270 and 1,520 aspects this One year.
