CoStar, Tourism Economics Downgrade Boost Projections in Revised U.S. Resort Forecast Thru 2026
WASHINGTON—CoStar and Tourism Economics downgraded increase projections in a revised 2025-26 U.S. resort forecast launched on the NYU Global Hospitality Investment Dialogue board.
Given Q1 underperformance and elevated macroeconomic concerns, forecasted increase charges were reduced across the discontinuance-line metrics: provide (down 0.1 percentage functions), inquire of (down 0.6 percentage functions), ADR (down 0.3 percentage functions), and RevPAR (down 0.8 percentage functions).
A similar adjustments were made for 2026: provide (down 0.5 percentage functions), inquire of (down 0.3 percentage functions), ADR (down 0.7 percentage functions), and RevPAR (down 0.6 percentage functions).
“High-line performance is mute growing even in essentially the most up-to-date environment,” stated Amanda Hite, STR president. “Until particular person self belief improves, alternatively, inquire of goes to remain softer—especially within the center and decrease tag tiers. Rate is pushing the discontinuance line within the community segment, and industry transient must proceed to enhance in moderately deal of industries, nonetheless leisure gains are going to be more isolated. Our forward-searching info continues to enhance the observations of many alternate stakeholders that reserving windows have shortened. That adds to the challenges hoteliers will face within the arrival quarters.”
“We’re searching ahead to a 2d half of of the year with customers facing bigger prices and a weaker labor market, agencies tapping the brakes on funding, and soft international customer volumes,” stated Aran Ryan, director of alternate research at Tourism Economics. “Whereas recession dangers have eased, the financial system—and the shuffle sector—will walk on a fair appropriate rope by technique of this duration.”
The projection for inferior working income per readily accessible room (GOPPAR) became also reduced by $3 for 2025.
“Whereas GOP increase will proceed, the whisk will be modest due to softer inquire of, rising departmental prices, and shrimp margin gains from ancillary revenues,” Hite stated. “When adjusted for inflation, GOP is down from closing year.”
