$70 Oil? Analysts Gash Forecasts as Supply Surges

marketwatchinvestor Team March 21, 2025

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$70 Oil? Analysts Gash Forecasts as Supply Surges

Tsvetana Paraskova

Tsvetana is a creator for Oilprice.com with over a decade of ride writing for info retail outlets corresponding to iNVEZZ and SeeNews.

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By Tsvetana Paraskova – Mar 20, 2025, 7:00 PM CDT

OPEC+ early this month confirmed it would possibly perhaps well presumably beginning up collectively with barrels to the market as early as next month
U.S. President Trump’s tariffs increased uncertainty about this 365 days’s put a matter to potentialities if economies slack because the tariffs.
Wall Avenue Banks See Oil in the Low $70s.

Rising offer and potentially weaker-than-expected put a matter to are set of dwelling to fill oil prices in ascertain this 365 days, with the price more likely to moderate in the low $70s, analysts and funding banks articulate.

With the U.S. new administration, experts demand the moderate phrase to be decrease when in contrast with final 365 days amid issues about put a matter to as financial uncertainty spiked with the beginning of the trade and tariff wars.

On the offer side, OPEC+ early this month confirmed it would possibly perhaps well presumably beginning up collectively with barrels to the market as early as next month. For certain, OPEC+ left the door beginning to any changes to its offer in any direction, asserting in the clicking launch that it stays “adaptable to evolving stipulations,” and “Accordingly, this slack lengthen would possibly perhaps well be paused or reversed enviornment to market stipulations.”

Wall Avenue Banks See Oil in the Low $70s

President Donald Trump’s trade policies threw market analysts a curveball, rising the uncertainty about this 365 days’s put a matter to potentialities if economies slack because the tariffs.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs decrease its 365 days-discontinue forecast for Brent Extreme prices, citing expectations of slower U.S. financial growth and extra OPEC+ offer.

Associated: American Oil Is Underhedged and Heavily Uncovered

“While the $10 a barrel selloff since mid-January is better than the trade in our terrible case fundamentals, we decrease by $5 our December 2025 forecast for Brent to $71,” the funding bank’s evaluate group acknowledged in a display masks, collectively with that “The medium-term dangers to our forecast dwell to the blueprint back given skill extra tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ manufacturing will enhance.”

The tariff wars and excessive spare capacity at OPEC+ producers are skewing the oil phrase possibility to the blueprint back in the medium term, Goldman Sachs has also acknowledged.

HSBC analysts also glance dangers in oil skewed to the blueprint back amid expectations of a surplus this 365 days and next. Stronger offer growth when in contrast with extra sluggish put a matter to growth would leave the oil market in a 200,000-bpd surplus this 365 days, the bank acknowledged in a display masks. Within the old market glance, HSBC expected a moderately balanced oil market in 2025.

Analysts at Barclays glance Brent Extreme prices at $74 per barrel this 365 days, down by $9 from the old forecast, as they slashed their global put a matter to growth estimate in mounting financial uncertainties.

“We flip fair on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 put a matter to outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to at ease excessive-frequency indicators and elevated financial uncertainty,” Barclays analysts wrote in a display masks final week carried by Reuters.

The UK-essentially essentially essentially based bank now sees this 365 days’s put a matter to growth at 900,000 bpd.

Barclays expects U.S. crude oil manufacturing to lengthen by the discontinue of this 365 days by correct 200,000 bpd when in contrast with the discontinue of the fourth quarter of 2024.

Wooden Mackenzie also expects oil prices to be decrease this 365 days when in contrast with 2024.

Brent crude oil prices are projected to moderate $73 per barrel in 2025, down by $7 per barrel from 2024, due to expectations that provide would likely outstrip put a matter to, Wooden Mackenzie’s most contemporary monthly oil market outlook confirmed. The $73 per barrel forecast for this 365 days was revised down by $0.40 from the early February monthly describe.

“We’re seeing a complex interplay of offer and put a matter to components. While global put a matter to is anticipated to lengthen by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC manufacturing is forecasted to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially outpacing put a matter to growth,” acknowledged Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Study at Wooden Mackenzie.

Key Oil Market Drivers

OPEC+ offer and the U.S. trade policies (and their quit on economies) would possibly perhaps well be the two key riding components for oil prices this 365 days, WoodMac says, though there are also many geopolitical issues at play, collectively with talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine and President Trump’s “maximum rigidity” marketing campaign on Iran.

WoodMac expects global financial growth at 2.8% for 2025, but that is also adjusted downward by round 0.5 percentage capabilities reckoning on skill trade battle scenarios.

Weaker financial growth can even decrease oil put a matter to growth by about 400,000 bpd from WoodMac’s contemporary forecast of a 1.1 million bpd lengthen for 2025.

In case oil put a matter to weakens, the annual moderate for Brent crude can be $3 to $5 per barrel decrease than the $73 per barrel forecast, the vitality consultancy says.

All these projections will count on OPEC+ actions by task of offer, U.S. trade and tariff policies, and global financial stipulations, WoodMac infamous.

For now, OPEC continues to peek strong oil put a matter to growth for every 2025 and 2026. The cartel left its put a matter to outlook unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market File (MOMR) final week. OPEC expects global oil put a matter to to grow by 1.4 million bpd in every of 2025 and 2026.

The Global Vitality Company’s monthly describe, however, was bearish, as it has been unparalleled of the IEA on oil put a matter to for several years. The Paris-essentially essentially essentially based company expects growth to be correct over 1 million bpd this 365 days, with total global oil reaching 103.9 million bpd.

While this would well be an acceleration from the estimated 830,000 bpd growth in 2024, the IEA predicts in its contemporary balances that global oil offer can even exceed put a matter to by round 600,000 bpd this 365 days.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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